Page 0: Page 1: -II (The Essence of Systems Thinking) 2006. 10. 11 sierra@cbnu.ac.kr Page 2: Contents Page 3: Contents Page 4: (Goal): A system is ‘goal-oriented’ • • (Components): A system is ‘hierarchical’ • (Analytic Thinking) (Interactions): A system is ‘synergic’ • (Systems Thinking) 3 Page 5: Assimilation Accommodation Analytic Thinking ( ) Systems Thinking ( ) • Break the system down into its components • Slice and dice approach (divide and conquer) • To understand basic elements of something ( : What comprises water How to organize CD collection How a clock works How much a car weigh) • The system stands still. • Relationships and interactions between the components are not important. • Nothing changes in terms of the nature and functions if some of components are taken away from or added to the system • See the system in terms of the whole rather than parts or individual events • Holistic approach (Dividing a system is impossible) • To sense how the parts work together, which in result, influence the patterns of behavior over time ( : All-star team not always the best Dividing a big elephant in half for the two? What about the speed and comfort of a car) • The system moves and changes. • One event influences another, even far away from or long time after the first event. • Definite changes in terms of the nature and functions if some of components are taken away from or added to the system. • What’s happening around us depends on where we stand in the system. • Underlying Assumption: • Underlying Assumption: 4 Page 6: A discipline for seeing whole rather than seeing part for seeing the structures that underlie complex situation for discerning high from low leverage A Framework for seeing interrelationships rather than individual components for seeing patterns of change rather than static snapshots A shift of mind from seeing parts to wholes from seeing people as helpless reactors to seeing them as active participants in shaping their reality from reacting to the present to creating the future 5 Page 7: (Today’s problems come from yesterday’s solution) (The harder you push, the harder the system pushes back) (Behavior grows better before it grows worse) (The easy way out usually leads back in) / (The faster is the slower) (The cure can be worse than the disease) 6 Page 8: (Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space) (Small change can produce big results- but the areas of highest leverage are often the least obvious) (Dividing an big elephant in half does not produce two small elephants) (You can have a cake and eat it too- but not at once) (The out world is not to blame) 7 Page 9: ( Today’s problems come from yesterday’s solution) Rebate Program 8 Page 10: (The harder you push, the harder the system pushes back) “Compensating Feedback” When well-intentioned intervention call forth responses from the system that offset the benefits of the intervention 9 Page 11: (Behavior grows better before it grows worse) Leverage Compensating Feedback Compensating Feedback 10 Page 12: (The easy way out usually leads back in) (The Faster is the slower) People Express “ ” 11 Page 13: (The cure can be worse than the disease) “ Shift the Burden” 12 Page 14: (Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space) 13 Page 15: (Small change can produce big results- but the areas of highest leverage are often the least obvious) “ ” Trim Tab (Dividing an big elephant in half does not produce two small elephants) 14 Page 16: (structure) (behavior) (feedback loops) (dynamic pattern of behavior) 15 Page 17: Beer Game, Group Modelling Causal loop diagram Thinking Learning Systems Environment Thinking System Dynamics Technique Simulation Tools Theory Simulation Engines: STELLA, Vensim, Powersim... 16 Page 18: 17 Page 19: 18 Page 20: System Dynamics 19 Page 21: Continuous Patterns Endogeneous Feedback Loops Policy Leverage (Negative Feedback Loop) (Negative Feedback Loop + Time Delay) + (Wait and See) (Buffer Device) (Critical Mass) (Positive Feedback Loop) 20 Page 22: feedback), feedback) (Self-Balancing Loop), (stabilizing feedback), (goal seeking (self restraining 21 Page 23: (word of mouth) (Self-Reinforcing Loop), (deviation amplifying feedback) . (vicious circle) (virtuous circle) 22 Page 24: parameter (positive feedback) (negative feedback) 23 Page 25: “ ” “ ” 24 Page 26: Contents Page 27: “ 26 Page 28: “ 27 Page 29: ‘ ’ 28 Page 30: . Nobel Prize(1977) winner Predictable Unpredictable (Past) (Present∼) Divergence of know-how: linear/continuous/sequential uni-direction Convergence of know-how: nonlinear/discontinuous/concurrent multiple direction 29 Page 31: (Past) • y= f(sum of x’s) x y x x1 , x2 …., xn (Present) ~ • x y x x x1 , x2 …., xn • • • • ‘ truth ’ hard science • • ‘ truth ’ soft science 30 Page 32: Contents Page 33: (Lower the Water Line) • (events) Event (What is happening?): Events Patterns Patterns (What trends or patterns of events seem to be recurring?): Structures (What are the structures that create that Structures Mental Models (Assumptions & World Views) patterns?) : Mental Models : What are the visions which generate the structures? 32 Page 34: 1: Fire Fighting Story at Multiple Levels At the event level, if a house in on fire, all we can do is react as quickly as possible to put the fire out. The only mode of action that is appropriate and available is to be reactive. If we reacted to fires only at the event level, we would put all of our energy into fighting fires. and we would probably have a lot more fire stations than we do more. As fire fighters, if we look at the problem at the pattern level, we can begin to anticipate where fires are more likely to occur. We are able to be adaptive by locating more fire stations in those areas, and staffing them accordingly. Because the stations are a lot closer, we can be more effective at putting out fires by getting them sooner. Being adaptive allows us to be more effective fire fighters, but it does nothing to reduce the actual occurrence of fire. At the structure level, we begin asking questions like :” Where does systemic structure come from? They are are smoke detectors being used? What kinds of building materials are less flammable? What safety features reduce fatalities?” Actions at this level can actually reduce the number and severity of fires. Establishing the fire codes with requirements such as automatic sprinkler system, fire proof material and fire walls save lives by preventing fires. Actions taken at this level are creative because they help create a different future. Systemic structure includes not only the organizational structure and physical buildings but also the people’s mental models and habits as well. usually a reflection of a shared vision of what is valued and desired. In the case of fire fighting, the new structures such as fire codes were born out of a shared value of the importance of protecting human lives, and of living and working in the safe buildings. At the level of shared vision, our action can be generative, to bring something into being that did not exist before. At the shared vision level, we begin asking questions like “ what is the role of the fire fighting function in this community? What are the tradeoffs we are willing to make as a community between the resources devoted to fire fighting compared to other things? 33 Page 35: 2: Emergency Room Story At the event level, the doctors and nurses must act fast to treat the most seriously injured, while the others wait their turn. Patients are diagnosed, treated and then released. ER reveals the limitations, however, of the event oriented response. ER treatment offers maximal leverage to affect the present situation with each patient, but it provides very little leverage for changing the future. At the structure level, we can begin to explore why certain regions have an increased need for ER. We may discover that 40 % of the ER admissions are children’s poisoning, because a large community can not read English and all warning labels are printed in English. By redrawing the boundary of ER issue to include the community, we can take actions that will change the inflow of patients. If we go down one level and examine ER use from the pattern level, we may discover that certain areas of a city seem to have higher ER needs. We may try an adaptive response and increase ER capacity in those regions. If diversion rates are high, we can also find out where the ambulances are being diverted from and try to enhance capacity there. At the shared vision level, we may want to explore questions “ what is our shared vision of the role of our health care system plays in our lives?” Perhaps the resources that are going into ER could be better utilized elsewhere, such as community education and prevention programs. The basic message of the “Levels of Understanding” diagram is the importance of recognizing the level at which you are operating, and evaluating whether or not it provides the highest leverage for that situation. Each level offers different opportunities for high leverage action, but they also have their limits. The challenge is to choose the appropriate response for the immediate situation and find ways to change the future occurrence of those events 34 Page 36: (Understand Unintended Consequences) • • (Tragedy of the Commons) : 35 Page 37: (Different Look at Time) • • 36 Page 38: (Ferreting out Delays) • • Actual Water Temperature Current Water Temperature Desired Water Temperature Desired Water Temperature Shower Tap Setting Temperature Gap • ᆞ 37 Page 39: Bull-whip Effects Production Plan Order Size Distribute Orders Retailer Orders Customer Demand Time Supplier Distributor Retailer Customer 38 Page 40: (Thinking like a Bathtub) • • inflow (stock, level) (flow, rate) stock outflow R1 + + B1 + 39 Page 41: – R1 B1 R2 40 Page 42: (Simulating Hamlet in the Classroom) - By Pamela Hopkins, Desert View High School, Tucson, Arizona Case of learning by playing 41 Page 43: 42 Page 44: 43 Page 45: 44 Page 46: – motivation 45 Page 47: (required performance) performance shortfall (actual performance) required performance stretch factor effort required employee effort employee motivation actual performance 46 Page 48: performance shortfall perceived likelihood of success employee motivation employee effort actual performance 47 Page 49: Rise to the Challenge Frustration required performance actual performance link loop (‘Rise to the Challenge’, ‘Frustration’) (actual performance) (required performance) (‘Raise the Goal') (‘Rise to the Challenge’, ‘Frustration’) 48 Page 50: 49 Page 51: Actual Level of Performance 1 Performance Change Rate 2 3 4 Time + 0 1 2 3 4 Time 50 Page 52: