Page 0: Page 1: The CDS market: A primer Including computational remarks on “Default Probabilities online” Roland Beck, Risk Analysis Group Page 2: The CDS market: A primer Folie 2 Page 3: Credit Default Swaps Short Introduction – CDS are similar to buying insurance against default or covered credit events – Protection buyer pays so called default swap premium, usually expressed in basis points – If specified event (mostly default) is triggered, protection seller covers occurred losses – In practice, buyer delivers specific predefined asset (bonds, loans) to seller and receives 100% of the notional specified in the CDS contract Folie 3 Page 4: CDS: Methods of Settlement – Physical delivery of the reference security – Physical delivery of equivalent asset – Cash Settlement Example, Argentine plain vanilla bond, actual price = 20 Physical settlement: Protection buyer delivers reference security, protection seller has to pay 100 Cash settlement: Protection buyer receives 100-20 = 80 from protection seller and keeps security Folie 4 Page 5: Credit Default Swaps Historic Market Development – Since early 1990’s CDS market evolved into a major component of capital markets – Removal of current regulatory uncertainty (Basle II) is expected to lead to further rapid market growth – Sovereign CDS benefited from standardisation in ’98/’99 as well as successful execution in recent defaults -40% Elimination of Argentine reference assets after default in 2001 Folie 5 Page 6: Credit Default Swaps Emerging Markets Focus – Emerging Markets are relatively small in absolute size – Strong focus on Sovereign CDS as they are considered the most liquid derivatives in Emerging Markets – Market liquidity generally shows strong dependency on liquidity of respective bond markets – Emerging Markets Sovereign CDS are highly concentrated in relatively few names (Top 7 account for 50% of total market) Folie 6 Page 7: Credit Default Swaps Mid ’98 – Russian crisis emerges Latin America – Brazil bond spreads and external factors Jan ’99 – BRL allowed to move freely, markets rally Jul ’02 – BRL at all-time low, financial markets panic Oct ’02 – Lula da Silva wins presidential elections Apr ’04 – Greenspan announces possibility of Fed rate increase Oct ’97 – Asian crisis hits Indonesia, Japan and Korea Folie 7 Page 8: Credit Default Swaps Brazil – CDS as Early Warning Indicator – CDS movements generally leading bond spread movements – Applies especially for longer term changes in Sovereign risk – CDS liquidity and volumes tend to increase in view of looming crisis while bond market activity tends to shrink/dry up Spread Comparison Brazil ’09 vs. 5y CDS Mid ’02 – Pre-election crisis 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Jan-02 Jan-03 Sep-01 Sep-02 May-01 May-02 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 May-04 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Apr ’04 – Greenspan announces possibility of Fed rate increase Brazil 09 CDS Brazil Folie 8 Page 9: CDS spreads versus bond spreads Shortcomings in imperfect markets – No arbitrage conditions should exist – Credit risk prices for bonds and CDS are equal over the long term – Price differentials can appear due to: Information unrelated to the credit risk is priced in, especially liquidity Contractual arrangements, i.e. Sovereign CDS mostly use old ISDA ’99 restructuring clauses Accrued interest premium for CDS Cheapest to deliver option for protection buyer CDS spreads are quoted on Act/360 basis while bond spreads are quoted o 30/360 basis Folie 9 Page 10: Computational remarks on “Default Probabilities online” Folie 10 Page 11: What are CDS spreads? Definition: CDS spread = Premium paid by protection buyer to the seller Quotation: In basis points per annum of the contract’s notional amount Payment: Quarterly Example: A CDS spread of 593 bp for five-year Brazilian debt means that default insurance for a notional amount of USD 1 m costs USD 59,300 p.a. This premium is paid quarterly (i.e. 14,825 per quarter). Note: Concept of CDS spread (insurance premium in % of notional) ≠ Concept of yield spread (yield differential of a bond over US Treasury yield) However: Arbitrage ensures that CDS spread ≈ bond yield spread Folie 11 Page 12: How do CDS spreads relate to the probability of default? The simple case Consider a 1-year CDS contract and assume that the total premium is paid up front Let S: CDS spread (premium), p: default probability, R: recovery rate The protection buyer expects to pay: S His expected pay-off is (1-R)p When two parties enter a CDS trade, S is set so that the value of the swap transaction is zero, i.e. S=(1-R)p ↔ S/(1-R)=p If R=25%, a spread of 500 bp translates into p =6.6%. If R=0, we have S=p=5%. Folie 12 Page 13: How do CDS spreads relate to the probability of default? The real world case Consider now the case where Maturity = N years Premium is paid in fractions di (for quarterly payments di =0.25) Cash flows are discounted with a discount factor from the U.S. zero curve D(ti) For convenience, let q=1-p denote the survival probability of the reference credit with a time profile q(ti), i=1…N Assume that there is no counterparty risk. Folie 13 Page 14: Valuation of a CDS contract in the real world case With proper discounting and some basic probability math, you get PV [fixed payments] = Discounted premium payments if no default occurs ∑ D(ti )q(ti)Sdi i = 4 244 11 4 3 N + Accrued premium payments if default occurs between payments dates di ∑ D(ti){q(ti − 1 ) − q(ti)}S 2 i = 4444 4444 11 2 3 N (1) PV [contingent payments] = Compensation payment (1 − R ) 1 3 2 ∑ D(t ) i i =1 N Prob. of default in respect. period {q (ti − 1) − q(ti )} (2) 14 244 4 3 Note that the two parties enter the CDS trade if the value of the swap transaction is set to zero, i.e. (1)=(2) Folie 14 Page 15: